2009 Economic forecasts for Montana

While attending the annual Economic Forum in Helena last week, it occurred to me what Economists and Meteorologists have in common: they are both trying to accurately predict a mostly unpredictable system. One unforeseen element enters the picture, whether it be a fast moving, upper level disturbance or gasoline prices reaching $4 per gallon, and there goes their whole meticulously laid out forecast.
The presenters at this year's forum, all highly respected professionals in their field, very sheepishly tried to explain why their predictions for last year were so far off their mark (high gas prices reduced tourism by about 20%!), and what effect it has for this year. The good news for us in Montana was, that we were not nearly as affected by the economic downturn as the rest of the country, as most of our state's economy is based on agriculture, oil and gas, and mining. And we know how well those industries did last year. Unfortunately even Montana will feel the pinch this year according to the speakers and they expect the bottom to hit around late summer. As for real estate, the biggest hit of course is the drop in new construction and that also drives our unemployment rate which for the first time in several years is now above 3%, at 5.9% to be exact. I know, other states would be happy to have that number as their figure, but for us that is almost a doubling of the unemployment numbers.

The good news is that the median home prices in several areas in Montana have actually gone up a bit, even though home sales are down.

Now the REAL good news: "Housing Predictor" a national online real estate research firm has ranked 5 Montana cities in the top 25 housing markets for 2009!!! They are: #2 Billings, #8 Bozeman, #12 Great Falls, #13 Livingston and #15 Missoula. Sounds like Montana is the place to be in 2009! (Or any other time for that matter ).

So, if you are in need for a little good news, come and see us in Montana!